the largest and most rigorous studies to examine the diet-heart hypothesis, the Minnesota Coronary Experiment adds
considerable weight to the growing body of evidence that
dietary saturated fat does not cause heart disease. Redirecting the focus away from saturated fats and toward other culprits, for example, sugar, may help to reverse the trend of
rising obesity and chronic disease. However, just as in 1989,
there remain firmly entrenched biases against saturated fat
that have more to do with belief than science.
Palm oil prices rose in March and April due to tightening stocks. Although
global production in 2015/16 is forecast to remain stable year-on-year at 61.7
million metric tons (MMT), consumption is forecast 6% up year-on-year to
62.1 MMT. As a result, ending stocks are forecast to fall 20% year-on-year
to 6.0 MMT, adding upward pressure to palm oil prices.
Rapeseed oil prices also rose due to lower expected rapeseed production in 2015/16. The global rapeseed oil production is forecast to fall 3% year-on-year to 27.0 MMT, driven down by a decline in planted area of rapeseed
due to lower profitability. Global rapeseed planted area is expected to fall
to 33.6m hectares, down 7% year-on-year, driven by falls in Canada (down
3% year-on-year), the EU (-4%) and China (-4%). The forecast has also been
reduced due to lower expected crush. In 2015/16, global crush is forecast at
66.6 MMT, down 3% year-on-year. With rapeseed oil consumption forecast
at 27. 1 MMT, ending stocks are forecast to fall 4% year-on-year to 4. 3 MMT.
The price differential between palm and rapeseed oil has narrowed
considerably since the end of 2015 largely due to concerns over weather-related damage to palm oil output, and resulting in rapeseed oil premium
of less than $40 throughout March.
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